Today's MLB Picks
Pick - Moneyline
Boston at
Miami
Boston (-150)
Best Odds -130
There's not a whole lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but we already knew this. Now they trot out Trevor Rogers who is an abysmal 1-8 with a 4.87 ERA. He's been hit around pretty well of late, and the Red Sox right now have a bit of momentum after late June swoon. They'll have Bello on the bump and he's got decent enough numbers to keep the lifeless Fish bats contained.
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Chris Vasile - Pick Made 19 hrs, 45 min ago.
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Pick - Prop
NY Mets at
Washington
CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
Best Odds +105
Abrams has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball, hitting .393 with a 1.061 OPS over 21 games since June 5, which includes 10 doubles, a triple, and four home runs. All those extra-base hits have made Abrams a total bases machine. The Nats emerging star has topped 1.5 total bases 15 times over those 21 games. and I like his chances to stay hot when he digs into the batter’s box against New York Mets starter Christian Scott who relies heavily on his fastball. Abrams has a .380 average and a .704 slugging percentage vs. fastballs this season.
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Andrew Caley - Pick Made 4 hrs, 42 min ago.
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Pick - Prop
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-120)
AaronJudge has been one of the best in baseball against left-handed pitching, and he'll face it tonight in Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott. Judge is second in baseball in isolated power against lefties, second in slugging, and just outside the Top 30 in batting average against them. Thus, he profiles quite strong tonight against a pitcher in Abbott who has struggled with barrel rate occasionally this season.
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Chris Hatfield - Pick Made 3 hrs, 55 min ago.
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Pick - Spread
San Francisco at
Atlanta
at
Braves -1.5 (+102)
Chris Sale's steady work on the mound has helped the Braves find their footing while they battled through a series of injuries. At 10-3, he’s tied for the second-most wins in the bigs while posting a 2.79 ERA (11th), ranking sixth in strikeouts, and second in WHIP at 0.92. He’s gone 7-2 in his last 10 starts and has surrendered one or fewer earned runs in seven of those appearances. The Giants will counter with Jordan Hicks, who's 4-4 on the year with a 3.36 ERA. Hicks has only made it past the fifth inning three times in 17 appearances this season. It’s not been pretty in his last two starts, as the G-Men dropped both while Hicks gave up 11 hits and eight earned runs, including three home runs in nine innings of work.
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Eric Rosales - Pick Made 7 hrs, 22 min ago.
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Pick - Prop
San Diego at
Texas
Jon Gray o15.5 Outs Recorded (-108)
Best Odds o15.5 -110
We can't allow recency bias to affect our perception and understanding of value. Jon Gray's outs-recorded prop is down to 15.5, which is pretty low for a hurler of his stature. You're rarely going to see a veteran of his ilk get the 14.5 number, so this is as low as we can reasonably expect. And the Over is worth the risk. Besides, he's been stretching himself back out since returning from a groin injury and has a long enough leash that should allow him to get into the sixth inning tonight.
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Jason Wilson - Pick Made 6 hrs, 59 min ago.
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Pick - Spread
Philadelphia at
Chi. Cubs
Philadelphia -1.5 (+145)
Best Odds -1.5 +150
Following Zack Wheeler is one of the best bullpens in baseball, as Philadelphia’s relief staff ranks in the top five in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. This pitching staff is likely to receive plenty of run support as the Phillies rank in the Top 6 in runs scored per game, hits per game, OPS, and home runs. That success at the dish is likely to continue against left-hander Shota Imanaga, who gets the ball for Chicago. Despite posting a 3.07 ERA, the rookie southpaw owns a 3.48 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Not only does Philadelphia boast the starting pitching advantage, but it also possesses a better offense and bullpen.
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Tony Sartori - Pick Made 6 hrs, 47 min ago.
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Pick - Prop
Philadelphia at
Chi. Cubs
Shota Imanaga u17.5 Outs Recorded (+135)
Best Odds u17.5 +135
Imanaga has been showing some cracks lately. He's allowed 13 earned runs over his last two starts and has given up a .284 batting average over his last nine. Giving up a lot of hits probably won’t work against this dangerous Phillies lineup that ranks seventh in wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season. The other thing to note is that Imanaga doesn’t have a huge leash. He averages just over 86 pitches per start and has thrown more than 100 just twice. He’s landed below that number four times in his last eight starts.
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Andrew Caley - Pick Made 4 hrs, 44 min ago.
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Pick - Prop
Milwaukee at
Colorado
Ryan McMahon Over 0.5 RBIs (+135)
McMahon has been one of the only productive batters for the Rockies, hitting .269 with a .805 OPS, 14 home runs, and 43 RBIs and while he can be a streaky hitter, I like his chances to have a productive night at the plate. That’s in large part because of the matchup against Brewers starter Colin Rea. The veteran right-hander has posted a good ERA this season (3.61) but a big regression could be on the horizon. Rea is pitching to a 5.31 xERA while surrendering a .285 xBA over 16 games (14 starts) this season.
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Andrew Caley - Pick Made 4 hrs, 39 min ago.
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Pick - Spread
Arizona at
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers -1.5 (-105)
Best Odds -1.5 +100
For a team with plenty of starting pitching injuries, it has been a welcoming sight for theLos Angeles Dodgersthat second-year armGavin Stonehas blossomed in 2024. The 25-year-old has a superb 2.73 ERA through 15 starts and is finding his groove, most recently pitching a complete game shutout against the Chicago White Sox while allowing just four hits and notching seven strikeouts. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last 10 starts. One of the exceptions came on May 21 against theArizona Diamondbacks, so he’ll be eager to even the score tonight.
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JD Yonke - Pick Made 7 hrs, 4 min ago.
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Pick - Moneyline
Baltimore at
Seattle
Seattle (-120)
Best Odds -135
TheSeattle Marinersare about as bad as it gets at the dish, so it’s hard to find many reasons to believe here, but I’m looking to Kremer’s hefty .260 xBA and .503 xSLG as reasons for optimism. On the flip side, I think we get more of the same from thisBaltimore Oriolesoffense, which is to say they won’t be hitting the ball overly well. Baltimore struggled the last time it played in a park this unkind to fly-ball teams when it mustered up eight runs in three games at Busch Stadium, and T-Mobile Park is proving to be a tough one to hit in.
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Kenny Ducey - Pick Made 2 hrs, 58 min ago.
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