We're back to having a full slate on Tuesday aftera light Monday docket, and we're offering our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
Demonstrating their league dominance with a 3-1 win against the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday, the National League-leading Philadelphia Phillies kick off Tuesday's action at home against the Brewers at 6:40 p.m. ET.
The Los Angeles Dodgers face the Pittsburgh Pirates at 6:40 p.m. ET, and the New York Yankees host the Minnesota Twins at 7:05 p.m. ET. These matchups feature three of the favorites by theWorld Series odds.
Later, the struggling Atlanta Braves head to Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox, a game that holds one of our player prop bets for Tuesday.
The day wraps up with two West Coast showdowns at 9:40 p.m. ET: the AL West-leading Seattle Mariners visit the Oakland Athletics, while the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks clash as both teams aim to edge closer to .500.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Tuesday (MLB picksbased on odds via ourbest MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday’s MLB expert picks
- Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts (+132 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Max Fried Under 6.5 strikeouts (+120 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure:Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
MLB player props
Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 4.5 (+130) | Over 4.5 (+118) | Over 4.5 (+130) | Over 4.5 (+108) | Over 4.5 (+132) |
Game info:Royals vs. Guardians |Moneyline: Guardians (-115 via Betway) |Total: Over 8.5 (-110)/Under 8.5 (-110) viaBetway|Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Seth Lugo has always been a solid pitcher, but he's really putting together a spectacular campaign in his first season with the Kansas City Royals, and he's among the contenders by the MLB Cy Young odds. Lugo owns a 1.72 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and ranks 13th among all qualified pitchers in fWAR.
On Tuesday, Lugo gets a dangerous Cleveland Guardians team that doesn't strike out very often. However, Cleveland does hit ground balls at the 11th-highest rate in the league - Lugo's preferred method of batted-ball outs - and is just middle of the pack in walk rate. Those two factors could allow Lugo to go deep enough into this outing to volume his way to five strikeouts.
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Claim $150
Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or casino betting site. 21+ and present in VA. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Our trusted projections models agree, as Lugo is projected to record 5.35 punchouts. Based on that projection, we're getting better than the 42% positive expected value on this bet through these +132 odds.
Two of our otherbest sports betting sitesoffer competitive +130 prices, while Pinnacle - which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry - is offering the Over at +113 after opening at +130.
Best odds:+132 via bet365
Max Fried Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 7.5 (-175) | Under 6.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-175) | Under 7.5 (-189) | Under 7.5 (-165) |
Game info:Braves vs. Red Sox | Moneyline: Braves (-170 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (+105)/Under 8.5 (-125) via Betway| Start time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Max Fried has been great this season for an Atlanta Braves team in dire need of some consistency with its best hitter and pitcher both done for the season. However, he doesn't really strike anyone out, as he's sitting at just 7.29 punchouts per nine innings this season.
To his benefit, though, the Red Sox are striking out a lot this season, especially lately. They own the third-highest K rate in the league, and it feels as though that's come out of nowhere.
Up to a $500 Second Chance Bet
Terms and conditions apply.
Claim $500
Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or casino betting site. 21+ and present in VA. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
However, these odds are far too long considering the projections and the fact that Fried has gone Over this total only 3 times in 11 starts this season. I also bet Fried Under 7.5 when it was -160 at DraftKings, but this is the higher EV play. We're getting roughly 29% +EV on those -160 odds, while this +120 price on Under 6.5 is showing 42% +EV.
Therefore, it depends on whether you prefer implied probability or expected value, and I'll opt for the latter here. For its part, Pinnacle is pricing Under 7.5 at -242, but the most recent odds it offered on Under 6.5 were -127.
Best odds:+120 via BetRivers
MLB player props made Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Here are our bestMLB betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
Written By:
Andrew Brennan Twitter link
Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He's been a Boston Red Sox fan for over 20 years and a Liverpool supporter for nearly a decade. He's probably watching, talking about, or thinking about sports while you read this.
