Prop bet #1: Finding fault in Falter
Bailey Falter has looked like a great addition to the Pittsburgh Pirates’ rotation this season, as the 27-year-old is pitching to a 3.22 ERA. But I’m betting things get a little tougher when he takes the ball against the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgerson Thursday.
While Falter’s ERA is solid, his advanced numbers say regression could be on the horizon. The southpaw has an expected ERA of 4.73 and is giving up a .268 expected batting average to opponents. Those numbers rank in the 22nd and 23rd percentile, respectively, among MLB pitchers.
Falter also doesn’t have a lot of swing-and-miss in his game, ranking in the 10th percentile in strikeout rate and the 14th percentile in whiff rate. Despite pitching fairly deep into games recently, he really doesn’t have a very long leash.
The lefty averages just 78.3 pitches per start and has only thrown more than 85 pitches once this season. I’m targeting the Under on his outs recorded prop, which is set at 15.5 going against a daunting Dodgers lineup that ranks third in batting average and second in OPS and wRC+ when facing left-handed pitchers this season.
Our Covers Prop Projections have Falter at just 13.7 outs in this one. That’s almost two whole outs of value!
Bailey Falter prop: Under 15.5 Outs (-118 at Caesars)
Prop bet #2: Gray matters
Sonny Gray, who has been one of baseball’s most consistent and reliable starters, is quietly having a nice start to his career with the St. Louis Cardinals, and he should keep that going when he takes the ball against the poor old Colorado Rockies.
Now in his 12th MLB season, Gray continues to be effective. The right-hander is pitching to a 3.06 expected ERA and is limiting opponents to a .218 expected batting average. Those rank in the 81st and 80th percentiles, respectively. He’s also striking out batters at the highest rate of his career, punching out 33.5% of batters faced, which is in the Top 10% of the league.
So, overpowering the Rockies shouldn’t be much of an issue. Right-handers have really given them problems. Colorado ranks 19th in OPS, 29th in wRC+ and have the fourth-highest K-rate when facing righties this season.
Gray’s hits allowed prop is sitting at 4.5 for this matchup. He’s stayed below that number in five of his 10 starts this season. So, you can probably guess I’m targeting the Under here.
But there’s more to like about this bet. Gray has never been a high pitch count guy over the course of his career and that hasn’t changed in St. Louis. He is averaging just 84 pitches and 23 batters faced per start. That means fewer opportunities for opponents to rack up hits and when the opponent is the Rockies, you love the Under at plus money.
Sonny Gray prop: Under 4.5 hits allowed (+115 at bet365)
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Prop bet #3: Tatis his own
Fernando Tatis Jr.has been trying to get back to the guy who was once heralded as the next big thing in baseball ever since his return from his PED suspension in 2022. It finally looks like that is starting to happen.
The baseball must look like the size of a grapefruit right now, as the San Diego Padres outfielder is absolutely locked in. Tatis is currently in the middle of an 11-game hitting streak where he has a .432 batting average and a 1.082 OPS with two doubles and two dingers. He’s also gone for multiple hits five times over the last eight games.
That’s a serious heater and I like him to keep swinging a hot stick when he digs into the batter’s box against the Slade Cecconi and the Arizona Diamondbacks on Thursday night.
The rookie right-hander has had an up-and-down season. Cecconi has three games where he’s allowed six or more runs and four where it’s been two or fewer. But his ERA is 7.20 with an .888 opponent OPS over his last five starts. That included a May 3 meeting against the Friars where he allowed six runs on five hits and two walks.
Of course, it was Tatis that did some of that damage, collecting two hits vs. Cecconi including a two-run dinger in that game.
Our Covers Prop Projections have Tatis at a whopping 2.2 total bases in this matchup, so the Over 1.5 at +105 shows some great value. Not to mention he’s gone Over this number five times in his last six games. Back Tatis to stat hot tonight.
Fernando Tatis Jr. prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at bet365)
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